Tuesday 22 January 2013

simple economics: BRICS: will india lose to indonesia

simple economics: BRICS: will india lose to indonesia: Recently there was a news that india may lose its place to indonesia in BRICS acronym. Just like we have indicators for healthy body like b...

Sunday 13 January 2013

BRICS: will india lose to indonesia

Recently there was a news that india may lose its place to indonesia in BRICS acronym. Just like we have indicators for healthy body like blood pressure ,body mass index. Similarly ,we have parameters to measure the health of a country like price level, quantum of fiscal deficit, interest rates. Alas! In india's case all these scores are very high and not a reason to cheer about. India is loosing esteem in investment market.
      Recentlt, A.M.Nayak associated with Larsen and Tourbo said that we could create 2-3 million jobs but rightbeing they are created in china now ,owing to the ease of doing business there.
     Likewise there are scores of indian companies who have started investing abroad because of poor return here. Why?. Many companiea have took hold on  their project ,hoping to interest rates get cool down..
   Let's see when RBI governor D. Subbarao is convinced to decrease interest rates. Growth has come to a standstill.here 5% growth is not a reason to cheerabout.
  Although , Govt.  had to bite the bullet and they announced some reforms. Subsidies have grown huge.govt. is unable to provide what it claimed to be. But the cash transfer scheme may turn around the whole picture. Firstly, people will directly get money in there account .they can spend it on anything they like. Secondly , the leakage in subsisidies program would come to a grinding halt.
  Although , it is a little change but it makes a great difference.
 Going with what Gurucharan Das says in his book India Grows At  night , here people are very much passionate and enthusiastic about their work.Govt. has done hardly anything in this strong growth that we have seen in the past decades. Instead , it was the private sector that took the lead.
    Let's hope this time too indian entrepreneur dont lose hope, not succumb to the pressure that bureaucratic hurdles pose.wih great energy and agility , we reclaim our position and status that we deserve at global stage which is only possible after we show due worthiness of being able. To harness the potential of democratic dividend time is ripe to rethink about the loopholes in our distribution channel, governance and infrastructure too.
   The biggest advantage india holds is its demographic advantage.for subsequent years we will get continuous supply of labour ,unlike in china where the supply if labour has decreased . As a result , wages have started increasing naturally and their cheap labour advantage would be no where  seen. The coming decades belongs to india where we see a continuous supply of labour and skilled workforce..
So it would not be wrong to say that days are not far when india surpass major milestones in the near future.offcourse , the basics are not in our favour still, but that won't do much harm, they don't give the whole story.